筆者利用中移動 (#941) 的股息率，嘗試倒推出中移動的相對股價範圍。根據高盛證券的估計，中移動 2023 年及 2024 年的每股派息分別為 4.94 港元及5.54 港元。由於 H 股的股息要向内地政府繳交 10% 股息稅，所以扣除内地股息稅後，實際每股派息分別為 4.446 港元及 4.986 港元。
2023 年 7 月香港本地銀行的定期存款息率大約為4厘，如果要吸引投資者買中移動收息，應該要加多 3 厘，即是 7 厘。以預測 2023 年股息 4.446 港元計，7 厘股息率相當於股價 63.51元。
市場估計 2024 年美國聯儲局開始減息，假設定期存款息率降至 3.5 厘，中移動的股息率同樣降至 6.5 厘。以預測 2024 年股息 4.986 港元計，6.5 厘股息率相當於股價 76.71 元。
換句話說，以股息率來倒推出中移動股價，於 2023 年 8 月中移動的股價低於 63.51 元便可考慮買入，越低越好。如果美國聯儲局真的於 2024 年開始減息，中移動的 2024 年相對股價便可升至 76.71 元。以目前 64 元或以下買入，有很大的上升空間。
(聲明：以上觀點僅為個人看法，並非任何投資建議，本人或客戶持有上述股票。)
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